Chelsea have what may be a season-defining match on Monday night, as Manchester United make the trip to Stamford Bridge.
The Blues are six points clear of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side in fourth place in the chase for a spot in next season’s Champions League.
If the Red Devils are to challenge Frank Lampard’s outfit ahead of the final stretch of fixtures, then a positive result in London is almost essential for the Old Trafford club.
It’s likely that the contest will be tight, but Chelsea have one fragile area that a certain player may look to exploit.
Kepa Arrizabalaga is enduring a tough period. The Spanish goalkeeper is out of form to such an extent that Willy Caballero replaced him in the starting eleven before the winter break commenced.
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There are rumours circulating that Lampard is willing to reinstate Kepa after a talk between the two, but there would be a degree of risk attached to such a decision.
So how poor has Kepa actually been?
Expected Goals can be used to determine the level of performance exhibited by a player, as it offers an insight into the likelihood of a shot being scored by considering aspects such as difficulty and location, and it tends to provide an accurate summary of whether a team deserved fewer or more goals based on their shots.
The metric can also be applied to goalkeepers as a means of determining whether a player saves above or below the expected level.
This season, Kepa has been expected to concede a total of around 25/26 goals, but he’s actually shipped 32.
Based on those numbers, the Blues keeper has underperformed his expected level which means he’s saved shots to a below-average standard in comparison to the typical player.
A goalkeeper that outperforms his expected numbers over time is often considered as above-average in terms of his shot-stopping,…