Jones Knows is back to provide Premier League predictions and betting angles and thinks backing Man City to win a low-scoring game vs Spurs is a smart play.
Leicester vs Liverpool, Saturday 12.30
When Liverpool meet Leicester, Liverpool usually win.
Liverpool have won the last three matches between these two and going further back, the Reds have won six of the last seven meetings.
Leicester were tipped by many as the team to end Liverpool’s spectacular home record in November but fell to a convincing 3-0 defeat. Despite Liverpool’s problems, there is still a gulf in class, especially when analysing Leicester’s last two performances against Wolves and Brighton in the FA Cup. Jurgen Klopp has never lost three straight Premier League matches. Away win.
My betting angle for the match revolves around Roberto Firmino, who is a spectacularly gifted footballer but not a natural goalscorer. That is seen through his expected goals data according to actual goals. In the last three seasons, the chances falling his way should have equated to 35.63 goals yet he’s only recorded 27 – for a player playing at this level, that’s a huge underperformance.
However, one area of his game significantly underrated is his heading ability, nine of those 27 goals during that period have come via a header, that’s 30 per cent of his ratio. Only Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Chris Wood have scored more.
Interestingly, three of those goals have come in fixtures against Leicester, including the final goal in the 3-0 victory at Anfield in December. Brendan Rodgers’ team are susceptible from crosses – only Leeds, Wolves, West Brom and Southampton have conceded more goals from wide deliveries than them this season. And, only Newcastle and Crystal Palace have conceded more headed shots on target than the Foxes (21).
Firmino looks overpriced at 14/1 to net his fourth headed goal vs Leicester.
Roberto Firmino is 14/1 to score…